Friday, November 16, 2007

Suntech - Earnings were OK, but guidance is absurd!

Thoughts abouts the Suntech earnings call:

1) Gross margin was flat when you take in to account the Euro/RMB exchange rate. They never seem to mention exchange rates when they're favorable.

2) Why do accounts receivable keep going up? The Chinese companies keep selling, but are they actually getting paid?? You'll notice FSLR has virtually no AR.



3) The sudden strength of the Spanish market clearly has everyone fooled. More about this later, but the suggestions that ASPs will be "flat to up" next year seems, well, crazy.

4) Has anyone noticed that Suntech and Q-Cells are now tied at #1, with the largest revenue in the solar biz. Sharp's revenue again was down year over year. Apparently Sharp is willing to concede market share until poly prices drop.


Indecently, noticed today that STP now has a higher market cap than Analog Devices, one of the best semiconductor firms in the world... And ADI has 2.5 bil in rev, and 20% op inc...(OR if you like, a 40% operating margin if they spent the same laughable $4 million a quarter on R&D like Suntech does). GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!

Let's recap....$10 billion market cap....some of the smartest scientists and engineers in the world, and products that fly off the shelves without any government subsidy, OR the same $10 billion gets you half the revenue, even less on the earnings line,and a commodity product that literally 500 other companies will be making by this time next year. You pick.

To paraphrase Dr. Shi...."can you see the smile on my face?"