Analysts are clearly having a field day with solar stocks. We seem to be stuck in "auto upgrade" mode... a higher price target every two weeks or else. Can anyone say "Internet"?
Here are a few choice recent analyst notes. BTW, I'm not trying to pick on anyone in particlar (since they all seem to be doing it.)
10/23/2007
Lehman Brothers upgraded SunPower Corp. to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target to $115 from $70. 2008 EPS to $2.05 from $2.00, 2007 EPS $1.18. 2009 EPS $3.50.
(Now trading at 33x 2009 earnings! SunPower simply met anlyst expectations, and guided flat for the next quarter.)
10/25/2007
Piper Jaffray raises JA Solar from $30 to $70. The firm said "JASO is ahead of schedule in its planned production ramp."
(Jesse Pitchel....such a man of mystery. Unlike some of the others he actually seems to understand the industry. And yet, as long as you are one of the companies Piper took public....)
10/29/2007
Friedman Billings raises MEMC Electronic Materials from $75 to $100.
($100 for WFR?? That's 20x the company's 2009 estimates, and 200x mine.)
10/31/2007
Stuart Bush (RBC Capital) raised SunPower to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform," target price to $145 from $51.
(This is what happens when you're cautious I guess. Stuart Bush actually urged restraint in the spring, saying there could be PV oversupply by the end of the year. Now that the oversupply seems to be delayed a quarter or two by stronger than expected demand in Spain, I assume he is giving up and joining the parade.)
11/2/2007
ThinkEquity Partners analyst Jonathan Hoopes lifted his rating on Evergreen shares to "Buy" from "Accumulate" and raised earnings estimates.
(ESLR...the company that has been in buisness a decade during a solar gold rush, and still no profit.)
11/5/2007
CIBC World Markets initiated coverage of First Solar at "Sector Performer," saying its shares are fairly valued. Also reiterated as "top picks" MEMC Electronic Materials Inc., JA Solar Holdings Co. and Suntech Power Holdings Co. due to their limited exposure to expensive spot polysilicon prices.
(OK, here's a head scratcher. FSLR is too expensive to be a buy....but STP, JASO, and WFR are somehow cheap. Sure, FSLR is EXPENSIVE, but it is also selling panels at MORE THAN A DOLLAR A WATT LESS than anyone else, and selling them literally as fast as they can make them. In other words, FSLR may be in the early stages of running those other guys out of business!
Ref, WHICH GAME ARE YOU WATCHING????)
11/6/2007
RBC Capital Markets said Sunpower shares could rise as the solar power company discusses its long-term strategy at a Tuesday analyst meeting.
(Love this one....You'd better buy it because they may say something exciting at the anaylst day. I'm surprised he didn't put a price target on the lunch menu. Only in a bubble!)
Cowen and Co. analyst Rob Stone noted solar stocks have climbed lately. Sunpower is up 84 percent in the past three months and hit an all-time high of $132.07 Monday.
However, we remain bullish, particularly in light of the recent strength in oil prices, which should underscore the need for continued and expanded policy support for renewables, wrote Stone.
(Am I the only one who thought it was expensive back at 200 times earnings?)
Bank of America initiates Chinese Solar names: JASO ($74 PT) and TSL ($76 PT) initiated buy. STP ($55 PT), YGE ($37 PT), CSIQ ($12 PT), and SOLF ($14 PT) initiated neutral. CSUN ($6 PT) initiated sell.
(Not to single out Eric Brown...but here is where the silliness really starts to show. 7 companies that ALL MAKE THE SAME THING. And yet one is worth 20x book, one is worth 5x book, and one is worth 2x book! Well, at least he got one out of 7 right, right?)
11/7/2007
FBR Research analyst Lauren Burk said she is "incrementally" more comfortable with her estimates for MEMC following an analyst day held by MEMC customer SunPower.
Soleil Securities analyst Paul Leming said he is very enthusiastic about MEMC stock because there is a world shortage of polysilicon.
"They are selling the right product in the right place at the right time. I have very big expectations and there is value in the company's stock," he said.
(Are you kidding me? Didn't I read this in Motley Fool like two years ago? Where have these guys been?)
11/8/2007
STP: UBS raises PT to $69 from $49
SPWR: Lazzard raises from 105 to 185
SPWR: Wedbush Morgan raises from 100 to 194
SPWR: Morgan Stanley raises to $175 from $115.
Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jeff Osborne said the SPWR analyst day showed the company's strong position and that SunPower 'comes out swinging' in commercial markets.
However, he said there was a certain 'investor euphoria' surrounding solar energy and questioned whether the sector really needed 30 financial analysts monitoring its sales.
He warned that low-cost Taiwanese and Chinese competitors will drive down industry margins, though SunPower will be 'somewhat insulated' because of its design and market leadership.
He raised his 2008 year-end price target to $97 from $81.
(No way!!! There are othere Skeptics out there? Well, sort of....he still raised his price target.)
11/9/2007
Collins Stewart Reiterates JA Solar Holdings (JASO) At Buy With $72 Up From $60 Price Target, while cutting JA Solar Holdings (JASO) 2008 Estimate To 1.84 From 2.24.
(Ed Note: WHAT????)
Collins Stewart Reiterates Yingli Green Energy (YGE) At Buy With $50 Up From $44 Price Target
(YGE...now weren't they the one with over 90 DAYS DSO???? Sounds like an upgrade to me.)
Sunpower SPWR AmTech Research Buy $110 » $168
11/12/2007
JA Solar JASO CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform $61 » $65
11/13/2007
HOKU Scientific Broadpoint Capital Buy $10
(HOKU? Don't get me started on HOKU.... How many other busineses have these guys failed at so far now? Do you really want to buy shares in a poly plant going up in the us in 2.5 years, when like 20 of them are going up in China right now.....)
11/15/2007
Suntech Power STP AmTech Research Buy $52 » $81
Suntech Power STP Lazard Capital Buy $75 » $80
Canadian Solar CSIQ Deutsche Securities Hold $10 » $17
11/16/2007
STP: Lehman Brothers, PT to $80 from $65 and maintained an "Overweight" rating.
STP: Jefferies & Company price target to $76 from $45 and lifted estimates, saying the company's production estimates for 2008 are likely to be raised again.
However, "a rapid rise in silicon availability to feed PV manufacturing risks flooding the module market, requiring price drops to absorb excess inventory."
(But didn't STP say on the call prices would be flat to up? SO in other words, their price estimate may be wrong, but they'll still beat their bottom line.)
