Trina Solar reported today that, yes, they too will enter the polysilicon refining business, building at least 3,500 MT (metric tons) of capacity. Considering they have about $200 mil in working capital, looks like we're looking at another stock offering or some debt. I assume they need at least an additional $150 million to build the plant.
Look out REC and WFR! WFR's repeated assertions that competition will be slow in coming is starting to look really silly.
Here's a PARTIAL list of new guys entering the market in the next two years...a total of something like 100,000 MT of capacity (for comparison, the whole industry in 2007 is about 45,000 to 50,000 MT). Of course, all of the current players are doubling capacity as well.
Note: these are NOT the only people who have announced plans to enter the polysilicon biz...just the ones that I figure have the highest chance to succeed. A notable omission is HOKU....read in to that as you like....
Korea
DC Chemical
KCC
Komex
North America
AE Polysilicon, Pennsylvania
Europe
Isofoton et al.
SOL holding AG - Silicium de Provence SAS
Crystal Systems
Nitol, SiPro, other Russia/FSU
Silicon Energy, Spain (Isofoton JV)
PV Silicon Forschungs- und Produktions AG, subsidiary of PV Crystalox Solar
SolarWorld/Degussa joint venture (JSSI)
HyCore (Belgian specialty materials group Umicore SA and Norwegian oil group Hydro ASA)
India
MASDAR (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company)
China
Sichuan Xinguang
JPID (Jiangsu Photovoltaic Industry Development Co)
Shunda (China)
Daqo Group (China)
Dalu
Henan Xuntianyu Technology
Fuyuan Silicon and Shanghai Solar Technology
LDK
ReneSola/Henan
Shanghai Aerospace Automobile Electromechanical
Tongwei (Si'chuan Yong’xiang)
Trina Solar
Australia
Prime Solar, Australia
Japan
Japan Solar Silicon (Chisso)
Taiwan
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (Taiwan)
Lee Chang Yung (LCY) Chemical Industry
Asia Silicon
Solartech energy & Mosel-Vitelic
Metallurgical producers
Dow Corning
Elkem
JFE Steel
SolarValue
SolarWorld/Scheuten joint venture
Bécancour Silicon (Timminco)
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Monday, November 19, 2007
RWI: Inefficient solar promotion costs consumers billions
This is a Google translated version of an article that appeared in the German news today:
From German newspaper: Berliner Zeitung
The promotion of solar energy provides companies huge revenue. But the benefit is doubtful
19.11.2007
Economy-Page 15
Jakob Schlandt
BERLIN. German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel is difficult to tame when it comes to the German solar energy industry. The promotion of the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) Gabriel hailed as a "success story for climate protection, energy supply and jobs."
There's just one snag: The Germany promotion of photovoltaics is highly questionable and economically, the consumer in the next dozen years is on the hook for many billions - even given the rising cost of electricity.
That is the conclusion of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institute for Economic Research (RWI) in a paper that will be published in January. A team headed by the chief of the Environmental Research Division, Manuel Frondel, has calculated how high the costs for consumers are from the current Renewable Energy Act alone for photovoltaic.
First Solar millionaire
The numbers are enormous: By the end of this year, there will be enough installed PV systems to require 20 billion euros in irrevocable payments over 20 years to the photovoltaic operators in addition to what would be required by the normal price of electricity, even considering inflation.
But this is just the beginning. Under the current subsidy, RWI estimates 2010 obligations to be over 28 billion, and by the year 2020 the gigantic sum of 57 billion. "These are the assumptions for the study to be more careful," says Frondel. The enormously high remuneration, introduced 2004, has led to an unprecedented boom. By the end of 2006, around 200000 plants were in operation in Germany, about seven times as many as currently 2003. Now a good half of the global photovoltaic capacity in an often cloudy country with weak sunlight - even in Spain about 50 percent more can come from the same PV cells.
This is not because of the environmental consciousness of the Germans, but simply financial incentives. Give 20 years of set fixed rate prices, the construction of a solar power plant is currently an almost riskless investment, with a neat return on equity of eight to ten percent rate the industry estimates.
But truly fantastic margins are generated elsewhere: at the manufacturers of the equipment. Given the almost impossible to breastfeeding by the EEG-fired demand, the production costs of the sale price uncoupled-the company can require as much as the law can.
Solo since the beginning of the year Solar shares rose on average by almost 96 percent. The companies strotzen before self-awareness and raise profit forecasts further. Q-cells example, the German market leader and the world's number two in solar cell production, will in 2007 turn a profit of 120 million euros with 800 million-euro revenue. Within two years sales doubling is a typical forecast in the industry.
Already there are the first Sonnenmilliardäre: Frank Asbeck, chief of the Bonn SolarWorld AG, holds a quarter of the company. And that is on the stock market at around 4.5 billion euros.
This high market value is quite understandable: "The EEG-Novelle 2004 led to a strong stimulation of demand by the solar industry nationally guaranteed returns," says RWI-Wissenschaftler Frondel.
The Federal Association of Solar economy interpreted the huge profits and sales growth differently. "Of course, the promotion of solar energy is not getting to zero", defended CEO Carsten Körnig the EEG-Vergütung. They increase the chances of German companies enormously, in a market of the future a good position to conquer. " "In Germany, the solar industry, the car industry, even as some major industry to replace. Now, we should not in the middle of the lane to the foot of gas." The companies would also not yield billion commodity, but in research and growth investing.
But the vision of the great future of the EEG unleashed by the German solar industry will be questioned by RWI. "With the extremely generous allowances are so comfortable conditions that German companies hardly the tough competition abroad suspend," says Frondel. In addition, a large portion of the equipment manufactured abroad. The market leader is currently Japan, and the expansion plans in China, Norway and the United States far exceed the projects of German manufacturers.
It is only that the German EEG gives world photovoltaic industry a huge boost – the industry is funded but almost solely by the German electricity customers. Sinn Voller, said the researchers, would be part of the money in research and development to invest up to the fact as cheap photovoltaics can be offered that make massive expansion worthwhile.
Conclusion
Also, the employment impact falls under the RWI-Berechnungen given the enormous purchasing power losses for the poor population. And not once in climate protection is the photovoltaic currently compete. The carbon dioxide reductions are extremely expensive, requiring more than 800 euros to be paid to displace one ton.
The conclusion of economist Frondel drops scathingly: "The EEG is a very inefficient form of support, it could also cost madness to say."
The Federal Ministry of Environment are not ignoring the escalating costs. They plan to reduce payments due to the Act from 2009, and then afterword and then by seven to eight percent per annum. This should be a one-time reduction of one cent. In December, the proposal well be acted on in the Federal Cabinet. But even still the Gabriel plans would pay approximately 40 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2010, and the profit margin of manufacturers would be expected in view of their cost cuts even further increase.
To the already existing billion cost at least limit, advises the RWI to be a much stronger annual reduction with a strong tee-off. "There must be a clear signal, that it could not go," says Frondel.
20 years Price Guarantee
Graphics: Billing: The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) has a nice feature for politicians: It costs the state nothing. The billions for the promotion erneuerbarere energies are in the electricity bills of consumers hidden. Who is a solar system builds up on the roof, the current 20 years at guaranteed prices in the electricity network launch. For small house roof systems are currently just under 50 cents, nearly ten times the wholesale market price for electricity. The power companies the costs may be on the bill of the consumer beat.
From German newspaper: Berliner Zeitung
The promotion of solar energy provides companies huge revenue. But the benefit is doubtful
19.11.2007
Economy-Page 15
Jakob Schlandt
BERLIN. German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel is difficult to tame when it comes to the German solar energy industry. The promotion of the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) Gabriel hailed as a "success story for climate protection, energy supply and jobs."
There's just one snag: The Germany promotion of photovoltaics is highly questionable and economically, the consumer in the next dozen years is on the hook for many billions - even given the rising cost of electricity.
That is the conclusion of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institute for Economic Research (RWI) in a paper that will be published in January. A team headed by the chief of the Environmental Research Division, Manuel Frondel, has calculated how high the costs for consumers are from the current Renewable Energy Act alone for photovoltaic.
First Solar millionaire
The numbers are enormous: By the end of this year, there will be enough installed PV systems to require 20 billion euros in irrevocable payments over 20 years to the photovoltaic operators in addition to what would be required by the normal price of electricity, even considering inflation.
But this is just the beginning. Under the current subsidy, RWI estimates 2010 obligations to be over 28 billion, and by the year 2020 the gigantic sum of 57 billion. "These are the assumptions for the study to be more careful," says Frondel. The enormously high remuneration, introduced 2004, has led to an unprecedented boom. By the end of 2006, around 200000 plants were in operation in Germany, about seven times as many as currently 2003. Now a good half of the global photovoltaic capacity in an often cloudy country with weak sunlight - even in Spain about 50 percent more can come from the same PV cells.
This is not because of the environmental consciousness of the Germans, but simply financial incentives. Give 20 years of set fixed rate prices, the construction of a solar power plant is currently an almost riskless investment, with a neat return on equity of eight to ten percent rate the industry estimates.
But truly fantastic margins are generated elsewhere: at the manufacturers of the equipment. Given the almost impossible to breastfeeding by the EEG-fired demand, the production costs of the sale price uncoupled-the company can require as much as the law can.
Solo since the beginning of the year Solar shares rose on average by almost 96 percent. The companies strotzen before self-awareness and raise profit forecasts further. Q-cells example, the German market leader and the world's number two in solar cell production, will in 2007 turn a profit of 120 million euros with 800 million-euro revenue. Within two years sales doubling is a typical forecast in the industry.
Already there are the first Sonnenmilliardäre: Frank Asbeck, chief of the Bonn SolarWorld AG, holds a quarter of the company. And that is on the stock market at around 4.5 billion euros.
This high market value is quite understandable: "The EEG-Novelle 2004 led to a strong stimulation of demand by the solar industry nationally guaranteed returns," says RWI-Wissenschaftler Frondel.
The Federal Association of Solar economy interpreted the huge profits and sales growth differently. "Of course, the promotion of solar energy is not getting to zero", defended CEO Carsten Körnig the EEG-Vergütung. They increase the chances of German companies enormously, in a market of the future a good position to conquer. " "In Germany, the solar industry, the car industry, even as some major industry to replace. Now, we should not in the middle of the lane to the foot of gas." The companies would also not yield billion commodity, but in research and growth investing.
But the vision of the great future of the EEG unleashed by the German solar industry will be questioned by RWI. "With the extremely generous allowances are so comfortable conditions that German companies hardly the tough competition abroad suspend," says Frondel. In addition, a large portion of the equipment manufactured abroad. The market leader is currently Japan, and the expansion plans in China, Norway and the United States far exceed the projects of German manufacturers.
It is only that the German EEG gives world photovoltaic industry a huge boost – the industry is funded but almost solely by the German electricity customers. Sinn Voller, said the researchers, would be part of the money in research and development to invest up to the fact as cheap photovoltaics can be offered that make massive expansion worthwhile.
Conclusion
Also, the employment impact falls under the RWI-Berechnungen given the enormous purchasing power losses for the poor population. And not once in climate protection is the photovoltaic currently compete. The carbon dioxide reductions are extremely expensive, requiring more than 800 euros to be paid to displace one ton.
The conclusion of economist Frondel drops scathingly: "The EEG is a very inefficient form of support, it could also cost madness to say."
The Federal Ministry of Environment are not ignoring the escalating costs. They plan to reduce payments due to the Act from 2009, and then afterword and then by seven to eight percent per annum. This should be a one-time reduction of one cent. In December, the proposal well be acted on in the Federal Cabinet. But even still the Gabriel plans would pay approximately 40 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2010, and the profit margin of manufacturers would be expected in view of their cost cuts even further increase.
To the already existing billion cost at least limit, advises the RWI to be a much stronger annual reduction with a strong tee-off. "There must be a clear signal, that it could not go," says Frondel.
20 years Price Guarantee
Graphics: Billing: The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) has a nice feature for politicians: It costs the state nothing. The billions for the promotion erneuerbarere energies are in the electricity bills of consumers hidden. Who is a solar system builds up on the roof, the current 20 years at guaranteed prices in the electricity network launch. For small house roof systems are currently just under 50 cents, nearly ten times the wholesale market price for electricity. The power companies the costs may be on the bill of the consumer beat.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
More weekend fun: SPWR insider sales.
Hey...I don't begrudge anyone their paycheck. But when you consider Sunpower is running cash flow negative, and still has an accumuated defict of $28 million, maybe their managament could show just a little bit of restraint?
Here's a little taste:
CEO Tom Werner
CFO Emmanuel "Million Dollar Manny" Hernandez
Here's a little taste:
CEO Tom Werner
| Date | Shares Sold | Option Expiration Price | Sale Price | Proceeds |
| 11/13/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 117.1998 | $3,416,994 |
| 10/9/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 88.0756 | $2,543,268 |
| 9/11/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 72.2304 | $2,067,912 |
| 8/14/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 71.6334 | $2,050,002 |
| 7/10/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 67.1663 | $1,915,989 |
| 6/12/2007 | 30000 | 3.3 | 53.4664 | $1,504,992 |
| 5/8/2007 | 15007 | 0.5 | 56.2455 | $836,573 |
| 5/8/2007 | 14993 | 3.3 | 56.2455 | $793,812 |
| 4/10/2007 | 39178 | 0.5 | 48.9546 | $1,898,354 |
| 4/10/2007 | 90,822 | 0.5 | 50.1527 | $4,509,558 |
| 1/16/2007 | 80000 | 0.5 | 42.3493 | $3,347,944 |
| Total: | $24,885,397 |
CFO Emmanuel "Million Dollar Manny" Hernandez
| Date | Shares Sold | Option Expiration Price | Sale Price | Proceeds |
| 10/25/2007 | 25000 | 3.3 | 110.4231 | $2,678,078 |
| 9/25/2007 | 10000 | 3.3 | 79.8208 | $765,208 |
| 9/25/2007 | 15000 | 3.3 | 80.3446 | $1,155,669 |
| 8/27/2007 | 25000 | 3.3 | 63.1781 | $1,496,953 |
| 7/25/2007 | 25000 | 3.3 | 68.0216 | $1,618,040 |
| 6/25/2007 | 25000 | 3.3 | 64.7678 | $1,536,695 |
| 6/5/2007 | 97814 | 3.3 | 55 | $5,056,984 |
| 5/31/2007 | 2,186 | 3.3 | 55 | $113,016 |
| 5/25/2007 | 75000 | 3.3 | 52.5752 | $3,695,640 |
| 5/22/2007 | 20000 | 3.3 | 53.0339 | $994,678 |
| 4/24/2007 | 20000 | 3.3 | 56.9495 | $1,072,990 |
| 4/16/2007 | 50000 | 3.3 | 55.0089 | $2,585,445 |
| 3/27/2007 | 20000 | 3.3 | 43.005 | $794,100 |
| 2/27/2007 | 20000 | 3.3 | 43.7859 | $809,718 |
| 1/29/2007 | 13024 | 3.3 | 45.5836 | $550,70 |
| 1/30/2007 | 86976 | 3.3 | 45.0193 | $3,628,578 |
| 1/23/2007 | 20000 | 3.3 | 42.1029 | $776,058 |
| Total: | $29,328,550 |
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Spain...the Solar Mirage.
The rapid rise in solar PV stocks (SPWR, STP, JASO, etc.) this year has been attributed to many things, from $100 oil to global warming euphoria. But in reality, the success of these stocks has been driven by just one thing...Spain.
First a little background. Think back to winter/early spring 2007. Solar PV manufacturers were in a rut...sales were sluggish, ASPs dropped 10% quarter over quarter, and inventories were skyrocketing. Many companies were brushing it off as "seasonality," but it was clear there was something wrong. Too much growth too fast, particularly by the Chinese firms, had begun to steal the profitability from everyone. The industry needed a quick fix, and fast.
And then came Spain.
Despite setting an official target of 371 mw by 2010, the new Spanish environmental "Royal Decree" set no actual timetable for installations, while offering an eye popping €.42 per KwH for large scale installations (In far less sunny Germany large scale installations receive €.38 in 2007). This allowed an investment return of over 10% for 20 years, guaranteed by the government, and so the GOLD RUSH began. By the time of this post (6 months later), the entire 371 MW appears to have been installed or under construction. And Spain even raised their target to 1200 MW by 2010.
Solar PV revenues started to boom again, and investors reacted with nothing short of euphoria, predicting that a solar revolution is just getting started.
So what's the problem?
Well, the demand from Spain came on so quickly it jarred the system...it sucked up inventory, and made even some questionable manufacturers financially viable. But in retrospect, it wasn't the size of the demand (~300 MW, a fraction of what goes in to Germany each year) that mattered, it was the speed...6 months.
BUT IT'S JUST THE BEGINNING, the analysts say!
That's where they're wrong.
First off, the Spanish Government, while raising their target out of necessity, has now admitted their policy was too generous, and they plan to fix it, although perhaps not until next fall.
So, sure, Spanish installations could grow again next year if the government really does wait until next September to reduce the tariff...the jury is still out on that.
But then what? Can it really keep growing after that? Not likely.
Spain is a much smaller country than Germany, it simply can't justify paying a billion Euros a year in subsidy for solar panels, especially when their climate is perfect for much cheaper large scale solar thermal plants.
And other EU countries like Italy and Greece are surely going to learn from Spain's mistake rather than repeat it.
Plus, the European economy is slowing, which could change everything.
So, anyone who is buying inflated shares of solar PV stocks on hopes that Spain will be the next Germany could be in for a rude awakening. In fact, since Germany is planning on reducing their solar subsidy starting in 2009, and the US does not appear to want to join the fray, it could turn out that 2008 is not the start, but the end of the solar revolution.
First a little background. Think back to winter/early spring 2007. Solar PV manufacturers were in a rut...sales were sluggish, ASPs dropped 10% quarter over quarter, and inventories were skyrocketing. Many companies were brushing it off as "seasonality," but it was clear there was something wrong. Too much growth too fast, particularly by the Chinese firms, had begun to steal the profitability from everyone. The industry needed a quick fix, and fast.
And then came Spain.
Despite setting an official target of 371 mw by 2010, the new Spanish environmental "Royal Decree" set no actual timetable for installations, while offering an eye popping €.42 per KwH for large scale installations (In far less sunny Germany large scale installations receive €.38 in 2007). This allowed an investment return of over 10% for 20 years, guaranteed by the government, and so the GOLD RUSH began. By the time of this post (6 months later), the entire 371 MW appears to have been installed or under construction. And Spain even raised their target to 1200 MW by 2010.
Solar PV revenues started to boom again, and investors reacted with nothing short of euphoria, predicting that a solar revolution is just getting started.
So what's the problem?
Well, the demand from Spain came on so quickly it jarred the system...it sucked up inventory, and made even some questionable manufacturers financially viable. But in retrospect, it wasn't the size of the demand (~300 MW, a fraction of what goes in to Germany each year) that mattered, it was the speed...6 months.
BUT IT'S JUST THE BEGINNING, the analysts say!
That's where they're wrong.
First off, the Spanish Government, while raising their target out of necessity, has now admitted their policy was too generous, and they plan to fix it, although perhaps not until next fall.
So, sure, Spanish installations could grow again next year if the government really does wait until next September to reduce the tariff...the jury is still out on that.
But then what? Can it really keep growing after that? Not likely.
Spain is a much smaller country than Germany, it simply can't justify paying a billion Euros a year in subsidy for solar panels, especially when their climate is perfect for much cheaper large scale solar thermal plants.
And other EU countries like Italy and Greece are surely going to learn from Spain's mistake rather than repeat it.
Plus, the European economy is slowing, which could change everything.
So, anyone who is buying inflated shares of solar PV stocks on hopes that Spain will be the next Germany could be in for a rude awakening. In fact, since Germany is planning on reducing their solar subsidy starting in 2009, and the US does not appear to want to join the fray, it could turn out that 2008 is not the start, but the end of the solar revolution.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Germany Solar vs. Wind
A week or so ago the German Enviroment Ministry released their annual report. Naturally, it's in German, but with the help of Google Translate I was able to pick out a few interesting tidbits.
No surprises here...solar comes out looking like a poor investment compared to wind. But even I was surpised at how striking the comparison is. No wonder the Germans are "adjusting" their subsidy dollars away from solar starting in 2009.
*For the adjusted figure we "credit" back to the subsidy a base rate for wholesale electricity of .07 Euros per KwH, and retail electricity of .15 Euros per KwH.
No surprises here...solar comes out looking like a poor investment compared to wind. But even I was surpised at how striking the comparison is. No wonder the Germans are "adjusting" their subsidy dollars away from solar starting in 2009.
| Wind | Solar | |
Billion Euros paid (feed in tariff) | €2.7 | €1.2 |
GwH electricity produced | 30,710 | 2,220 |
CO2 Million MT prevented | 26.5 | 1.5 |
Euros needed to save one tonne of CO2 (adjusted*) | €22 | €600 |
*For the adjusted figure we "credit" back to the subsidy a base rate for wholesale electricity of .07 Euros per KwH, and retail electricity of .15 Euros per KwH.
Weekend Fun... what does a bubble look like?
Analysts are clearly having a field day with solar stocks. We seem to be stuck in "auto upgrade" mode... a higher price target every two weeks or else. Can anyone say "Internet"?
Here are a few choice recent analyst notes. BTW, I'm not trying to pick on anyone in particlar (since they all seem to be doing it.)
10/23/2007
Lehman Brothers upgraded SunPower Corp. to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target to $115 from $70. 2008 EPS to $2.05 from $2.00, 2007 EPS $1.18. 2009 EPS $3.50.
(Now trading at 33x 2009 earnings! SunPower simply met anlyst expectations, and guided flat for the next quarter.)
10/25/2007
Piper Jaffray raises JA Solar from $30 to $70. The firm said "JASO is ahead of schedule in its planned production ramp."
(Jesse Pitchel....such a man of mystery. Unlike some of the others he actually seems to understand the industry. And yet, as long as you are one of the companies Piper took public....)
10/29/2007
Friedman Billings raises MEMC Electronic Materials from $75 to $100.
($100 for WFR?? That's 20x the company's 2009 estimates, and 200x mine.)
10/31/2007
Stuart Bush (RBC Capital) raised SunPower to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform," target price to $145 from $51.
(This is what happens when you're cautious I guess. Stuart Bush actually urged restraint in the spring, saying there could be PV oversupply by the end of the year. Now that the oversupply seems to be delayed a quarter or two by stronger than expected demand in Spain, I assume he is giving up and joining the parade.)
11/2/2007
ThinkEquity Partners analyst Jonathan Hoopes lifted his rating on Evergreen shares to "Buy" from "Accumulate" and raised earnings estimates.
(ESLR...the company that has been in buisness a decade during a solar gold rush, and still no profit.)
11/5/2007
CIBC World Markets initiated coverage of First Solar at "Sector Performer," saying its shares are fairly valued. Also reiterated as "top picks" MEMC Electronic Materials Inc., JA Solar Holdings Co. and Suntech Power Holdings Co. due to their limited exposure to expensive spot polysilicon prices.
(OK, here's a head scratcher. FSLR is too expensive to be a buy....but STP, JASO, and WFR are somehow cheap. Sure, FSLR is EXPENSIVE, but it is also selling panels at MORE THAN A DOLLAR A WATT LESS than anyone else, and selling them literally as fast as they can make them. In other words, FSLR may be in the early stages of running those other guys out of business!
Ref, WHICH GAME ARE YOU WATCHING????)
11/6/2007
RBC Capital Markets said Sunpower shares could rise as the solar power company discusses its long-term strategy at a Tuesday analyst meeting.
(Love this one....You'd better buy it because they may say something exciting at the anaylst day. I'm surprised he didn't put a price target on the lunch menu. Only in a bubble!)
Cowen and Co. analyst Rob Stone noted solar stocks have climbed lately. Sunpower is up 84 percent in the past three months and hit an all-time high of $132.07 Monday.
However, we remain bullish, particularly in light of the recent strength in oil prices, which should underscore the need for continued and expanded policy support for renewables, wrote Stone.
(Am I the only one who thought it was expensive back at 200 times earnings?)
Bank of America initiates Chinese Solar names: JASO ($74 PT) and TSL ($76 PT) initiated buy. STP ($55 PT), YGE ($37 PT), CSIQ ($12 PT), and SOLF ($14 PT) initiated neutral. CSUN ($6 PT) initiated sell.
(Not to single out Eric Brown...but here is where the silliness really starts to show. 7 companies that ALL MAKE THE SAME THING. And yet one is worth 20x book, one is worth 5x book, and one is worth 2x book! Well, at least he got one out of 7 right, right?)
11/7/2007
FBR Research analyst Lauren Burk said she is "incrementally" more comfortable with her estimates for MEMC following an analyst day held by MEMC customer SunPower.
Soleil Securities analyst Paul Leming said he is very enthusiastic about MEMC stock because there is a world shortage of polysilicon.
"They are selling the right product in the right place at the right time. I have very big expectations and there is value in the company's stock," he said.
(Are you kidding me? Didn't I read this in Motley Fool like two years ago? Where have these guys been?)
11/8/2007
STP: UBS raises PT to $69 from $49
SPWR: Lazzard raises from 105 to 185
SPWR: Wedbush Morgan raises from 100 to 194
SPWR: Morgan Stanley raises to $175 from $115.
Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jeff Osborne said the SPWR analyst day showed the company's strong position and that SunPower 'comes out swinging' in commercial markets.
However, he said there was a certain 'investor euphoria' surrounding solar energy and questioned whether the sector really needed 30 financial analysts monitoring its sales.
He warned that low-cost Taiwanese and Chinese competitors will drive down industry margins, though SunPower will be 'somewhat insulated' because of its design and market leadership.
He raised his 2008 year-end price target to $97 from $81.
(No way!!! There are othere Skeptics out there? Well, sort of....he still raised his price target.)
11/9/2007
Collins Stewart Reiterates JA Solar Holdings (JASO) At Buy With $72 Up From $60 Price Target, while cutting JA Solar Holdings (JASO) 2008 Estimate To 1.84 From 2.24.
(Ed Note: WHAT????)
Collins Stewart Reiterates Yingli Green Energy (YGE) At Buy With $50 Up From $44 Price Target
(YGE...now weren't they the one with over 90 DAYS DSO???? Sounds like an upgrade to me.)
Sunpower SPWR AmTech Research Buy $110 » $168
11/12/2007
JA Solar JASO CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform $61 » $65
11/13/2007
HOKU Scientific Broadpoint Capital Buy $10
(HOKU? Don't get me started on HOKU.... How many other busineses have these guys failed at so far now? Do you really want to buy shares in a poly plant going up in the us in 2.5 years, when like 20 of them are going up in China right now.....)
11/15/2007
Suntech Power STP AmTech Research Buy $52 » $81
Suntech Power STP Lazard Capital Buy $75 » $80
Canadian Solar CSIQ Deutsche Securities Hold $10 » $17
11/16/2007
STP: Lehman Brothers, PT to $80 from $65 and maintained an "Overweight" rating.
STP: Jefferies & Company price target to $76 from $45 and lifted estimates, saying the company's production estimates for 2008 are likely to be raised again.
However, "a rapid rise in silicon availability to feed PV manufacturing risks flooding the module market, requiring price drops to absorb excess inventory."
(But didn't STP say on the call prices would be flat to up? SO in other words, their price estimate may be wrong, but they'll still beat their bottom line.)
Here are a few choice recent analyst notes. BTW, I'm not trying to pick on anyone in particlar (since they all seem to be doing it.)
10/23/2007
Lehman Brothers upgraded SunPower Corp. to Overweight from Equal Weight, price target to $115 from $70. 2008 EPS to $2.05 from $2.00, 2007 EPS $1.18. 2009 EPS $3.50.
(Now trading at 33x 2009 earnings! SunPower simply met anlyst expectations, and guided flat for the next quarter.)
10/25/2007
Piper Jaffray raises JA Solar from $30 to $70. The firm said "JASO is ahead of schedule in its planned production ramp."
(Jesse Pitchel....such a man of mystery. Unlike some of the others he actually seems to understand the industry. And yet, as long as you are one of the companies Piper took public....)
10/29/2007
Friedman Billings raises MEMC Electronic Materials from $75 to $100.
($100 for WFR?? That's 20x the company's 2009 estimates, and 200x mine.)
10/31/2007
Stuart Bush (RBC Capital) raised SunPower to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform," target price to $145 from $51.
(This is what happens when you're cautious I guess. Stuart Bush actually urged restraint in the spring, saying there could be PV oversupply by the end of the year. Now that the oversupply seems to be delayed a quarter or two by stronger than expected demand in Spain, I assume he is giving up and joining the parade.)
11/2/2007
ThinkEquity Partners analyst Jonathan Hoopes lifted his rating on Evergreen shares to "Buy" from "Accumulate" and raised earnings estimates.
(ESLR...the company that has been in buisness a decade during a solar gold rush, and still no profit.)
11/5/2007
CIBC World Markets initiated coverage of First Solar at "Sector Performer," saying its shares are fairly valued. Also reiterated as "top picks" MEMC Electronic Materials Inc., JA Solar Holdings Co. and Suntech Power Holdings Co. due to their limited exposure to expensive spot polysilicon prices.
(OK, here's a head scratcher. FSLR is too expensive to be a buy....but STP, JASO, and WFR are somehow cheap. Sure, FSLR is EXPENSIVE, but it is also selling panels at MORE THAN A DOLLAR A WATT LESS than anyone else, and selling them literally as fast as they can make them. In other words, FSLR may be in the early stages of running those other guys out of business!
Ref, WHICH GAME ARE YOU WATCHING????)
11/6/2007
RBC Capital Markets said Sunpower shares could rise as the solar power company discusses its long-term strategy at a Tuesday analyst meeting.
(Love this one....You'd better buy it because they may say something exciting at the anaylst day. I'm surprised he didn't put a price target on the lunch menu. Only in a bubble!)
Cowen and Co. analyst Rob Stone noted solar stocks have climbed lately. Sunpower is up 84 percent in the past three months and hit an all-time high of $132.07 Monday.
However, we remain bullish, particularly in light of the recent strength in oil prices, which should underscore the need for continued and expanded policy support for renewables, wrote Stone.
(Am I the only one who thought it was expensive back at 200 times earnings?)
Bank of America initiates Chinese Solar names: JASO ($74 PT) and TSL ($76 PT) initiated buy. STP ($55 PT), YGE ($37 PT), CSIQ ($12 PT), and SOLF ($14 PT) initiated neutral. CSUN ($6 PT) initiated sell.
(Not to single out Eric Brown...but here is where the silliness really starts to show. 7 companies that ALL MAKE THE SAME THING. And yet one is worth 20x book, one is worth 5x book, and one is worth 2x book! Well, at least he got one out of 7 right, right?)
11/7/2007
FBR Research analyst Lauren Burk said she is "incrementally" more comfortable with her estimates for MEMC following an analyst day held by MEMC customer SunPower.
Soleil Securities analyst Paul Leming said he is very enthusiastic about MEMC stock because there is a world shortage of polysilicon.
"They are selling the right product in the right place at the right time. I have very big expectations and there is value in the company's stock," he said.
(Are you kidding me? Didn't I read this in Motley Fool like two years ago? Where have these guys been?)
11/8/2007
STP: UBS raises PT to $69 from $49
SPWR: Lazzard raises from 105 to 185
SPWR: Wedbush Morgan raises from 100 to 194
SPWR: Morgan Stanley raises to $175 from $115.
Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jeff Osborne said the SPWR analyst day showed the company's strong position and that SunPower 'comes out swinging' in commercial markets.
However, he said there was a certain 'investor euphoria' surrounding solar energy and questioned whether the sector really needed 30 financial analysts monitoring its sales.
He warned that low-cost Taiwanese and Chinese competitors will drive down industry margins, though SunPower will be 'somewhat insulated' because of its design and market leadership.
He raised his 2008 year-end price target to $97 from $81.
(No way!!! There are othere Skeptics out there? Well, sort of....he still raised his price target.)
11/9/2007
Collins Stewart Reiterates JA Solar Holdings (JASO) At Buy With $72 Up From $60 Price Target, while cutting JA Solar Holdings (JASO) 2008 Estimate To 1.84 From 2.24.
(Ed Note: WHAT????)
Collins Stewart Reiterates Yingli Green Energy (YGE) At Buy With $50 Up From $44 Price Target
(YGE...now weren't they the one with over 90 DAYS DSO???? Sounds like an upgrade to me.)
Sunpower SPWR AmTech Research Buy $110 » $168
11/12/2007
JA Solar JASO CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform $61 » $65
11/13/2007
HOKU Scientific Broadpoint Capital Buy $10
(HOKU? Don't get me started on HOKU.... How many other busineses have these guys failed at so far now? Do you really want to buy shares in a poly plant going up in the us in 2.5 years, when like 20 of them are going up in China right now.....)
11/15/2007
Suntech Power STP AmTech Research Buy $52 » $81
Suntech Power STP Lazard Capital Buy $75 » $80
Canadian Solar CSIQ Deutsche Securities Hold $10 » $17
11/16/2007
STP: Lehman Brothers, PT to $80 from $65 and maintained an "Overweight" rating.
STP: Jefferies & Company price target to $76 from $45 and lifted estimates, saying the company's production estimates for 2008 are likely to be raised again.
However, "a rapid rise in silicon availability to feed PV manufacturing risks flooding the module market, requiring price drops to absorb excess inventory."
(But didn't STP say on the call prices would be flat to up? SO in other words, their price estimate may be wrong, but they'll still beat their bottom line.)
Suntech - Earnings were OK, but guidance is absurd!
Thoughts abouts the Suntech earnings call:
1) Gross margin was flat when you take in to account the Euro/RMB exchange rate. They never seem to mention exchange rates when they're favorable.
2) Why do accounts receivable keep going up? The Chinese companies keep selling, but are they actually getting paid?? You'll notice FSLR has virtually no AR.
3) The sudden strength of the Spanish market clearly has everyone fooled. More about this later, but the suggestions that ASPs will be "flat to up" next year seems, well, crazy.
4) Has anyone noticed that Suntech and Q-Cells are now tied at #1, with the largest revenue in the solar biz. Sharp's revenue again was down year over year. Apparently Sharp is willing to concede market share until poly prices drop.
Indecently, noticed today that STP now has a higher market cap than Analog Devices, one of the best semiconductor firms in the world... And ADI has 2.5 bil in rev, and 20% op inc...(OR if you like, a 40% operating margin if they spent the same laughable $4 million a quarter on R&D like Suntech does). GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!
Let's recap....$10 billion market cap....some of the smartest scientists and engineers in the world, and products that fly off the shelves without any government subsidy, OR the same $10 billion gets you half the revenue, even less on the earnings line,and a commodity product that literally 500 other companies will be making by this time next year. You pick.
To paraphrase Dr. Shi...."can you see the smile on my face?"
1) Gross margin was flat when you take in to account the Euro/RMB exchange rate. They never seem to mention exchange rates when they're favorable.
2) Why do accounts receivable keep going up? The Chinese companies keep selling, but are they actually getting paid?? You'll notice FSLR has virtually no AR.
3) The sudden strength of the Spanish market clearly has everyone fooled. More about this later, but the suggestions that ASPs will be "flat to up" next year seems, well, crazy.
4) Has anyone noticed that Suntech and Q-Cells are now tied at #1, with the largest revenue in the solar biz. Sharp's revenue again was down year over year. Apparently Sharp is willing to concede market share until poly prices drop.
Indecently, noticed today that STP now has a higher market cap than Analog Devices, one of the best semiconductor firms in the world... And ADI has 2.5 bil in rev, and 20% op inc...(OR if you like, a 40% operating margin if they spent the same laughable $4 million a quarter on R&D like Suntech does). GOOD LUCK WITH THAT! Let's recap....$10 billion market cap....some of the smartest scientists and engineers in the world, and products that fly off the shelves without any government subsidy, OR the same $10 billion gets you half the revenue, even less on the earnings line,and a commodity product that literally 500 other companies will be making by this time next year. You pick.
To paraphrase Dr. Shi...."can you see the smile on my face?"
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